Amazon's "Kindle DX" Hype May Provide Shorting Opportunity

Amazon is holding a press conference at a New York university tomorrow to probably announce what many optimistic investors had been waiting for: a Kindle with a bigger screen.

Much of the reason for the press conference seems lost as the important info has been leaking out over the past few days. Engadget, a popular electronics blog, published this post about the new Kindle, including leaked pictures.

Supposedly, the new Kindle will feature a 9.7 inch screen, enhanced browsing capabilities, and a built-in PDF reader, adding some more functionality to the device. However, the Kindle is still far from being a full-fledged computer-alternative (I'd argue that the most recent iPods are much more functional) so I don't know if the Kindle buzz is merited.

Newspaper and textbook publishers are looking to this bigger Kindle to try to increase popularity of their products: apparently, Case Western, Pace, Princeton, Reed, Arizona State, and Darden School at the University of Virginia will be participating in a trial where Kindles will be used in the classroom.

However, as a college student, I don't see this application of the device gaining much traction. Traditional textbooks are convenient because they can be taken everywhere (though not necessarily all at one time). The new Kindle will replicate this ability, with the added convenience of carrying a single device weighing ounces instead of lugging a half-dozen textbooks weighing 20 pounds. However, the appeal ends there. Paper textbooks can easily be marked up to enhance the learning experience; even with some sort of highlighting or annotation feature, the effect is largely lost on-screen. The best part about paper textbooks are their reusability; books used year after year are very cheap to buy secondhand, and even new books can be returned or resold for a significant portion of their face value. Though the Kindle user will likely be able to keep their Introduction to Macroeconomics book forever, it retains little value after the course is over.

I also think that there is an emotional objection to electronic textbooks. In my Penn State-mandated public speaking course, the required text was electronic. It amounted to a PDF with links to a limited-access website with additional material and assignments. For this, the publisher charged about $70 - a hefty price for some intellectual property. Students were outwardly angry and hostile, and many, like myself, didn't bother to even purchase the textbook. People would rather spend $100 for a paper version that they can sell to a friend or the bookstore for $50 than pay for material that feels like it should be free.

Maybe schools like Princeton will have free course materials or heavily subsidized textbooks, but I don't see the Kindle catching on at Penn State.

The other highly-touted new application is the reading of newspapers, and struggling companies like the New York Times are hoping that they can sell a lot of $10 monthly subscriptions to help stop the widespread bleeding. But as other bloggers and writers have pointed out, why would someone pay $10/month for the Times' limited-feature Kindle edition when their regular website features much deeper and richer content for free?

Unless there are some mind-blowing details that haven't been leaked yet, I don't see this new Kindle creating much of an addition to Amazon's bottom line anytime soon. I think that Amazon's shares are already more than fully valued, so if AMZN shares do pop tomorrow, that pop simply provides a juicier entry point for a short position.