Sunday, May 3, 2009

Do Not Buy Amazon: Round 3

Another pretty good article about avoiding Amazon.com shares (AMZN) has gone up on Seeking Alpha. You can read the full article by clicking the link below:

Read Why Amazon is Overvalued by Jason Tillberg at Seeking Alpha

His arguments are based on a fair-value P/E of 10, which even I will admit is unrealistically low for a company like Amazon. I don't have time to re-run calculations (as I have an important final in 12 hours), but the basis of his argument is valid. Amazon is a great company, but not an attractive buy based on fundamentals at this point. Like FSLR, which I have repeatedly criticized for being overly expensive, AMZN shares could continue to go up based on investor sentiment and good short-term performance. But the bottom line is that shares are more than fairly valued at this level, and jumping in at this point is not the most rational capital allocation that you can make.

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